Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Election preditions, Massachusetts and national

Time to predict

by Kevin Sowyrda

Wilkerson vs. Chang-Diaz

Who ever thought State Senator Diane Wilkerson and U.S. Senator Ted Stevens would have so much in common. Then again, maybe they don't. I mean, Stevens was found guilty in Washington this week after a highly publicized trial, but at least he's still walking. But the Feds have so much less courtesy for mere state senators. They cuffed Wilkerson early Tuesday morning, without even the courtesy of a by your leave, and practically ransacked her Beacon Hill office while distributing a photo of the senator allegedly taking one of eight bribes from an undercover agent - and making the deposit in a sort of Victoria's Secret place.

Think about it this way. You're one week away from a Don Quixote sticker campaign and what's your schedule? Doing the perp walk on the six o'clock news. Hardly a photo finish for election day.

Wilkerson was already going down in flames in what the Boston Globe on Monday called her "sore loser" sticker campaign. But this is the proverbial nail in the coffin and no one should be so naive as to feign shock or even surprise. There was nothing remaining for Wilkerson but this humiliating culmination of events. Everything was always climaxing to this precise and tragic moment in time. One Boston city councilor said that after reading the indictment he thought it "read like an episode of the Sopranos."

The FBI sting operation only changes one thing. The job Mayor Menino likely had waiting for Wilkerson is now on very permanent hold. But this is not to say His Honor has entirely given up hope. Late Tuesday morning a mayoral aide, who asked not to be named, told me the mayor's position in the race remains unchanged. "He's not formally endorsed either candidate."

I'm frightened to imagine what it would take for the Mayor to finally break with Wilkerson. Or for that matter, Boston's morning talk gabber and former Speaker of the House Tom Finneran, who spent his Wednesday morning shamelessly ignoring the biggest news story in town in favor of an enthralling discussion on dog racing. Loyalty to old friends is one thing, but whatever happened to loyalty to the voters who've been so beguiled by a very cunning political insider?

And then there's this. Make no mistake that you're reading about the beginning of Boston's Watergate. There are more Subpoenas flying around Bean Town than pigeons, and if Senator Wilkerson starts to sing like a bird the criminal defense counsel business will be the new growth industry in the Hub. When you read the Wilkerson indictment carefully there's one sentence that indicates the state capital could be on the verge of the most far reaching political scandal since the Ward Commission ferreted out the bad apples in the 1980's. An unidentified Wilkerson assistant allegedly tells agents in the sting operation that other Boston officials needed money, and would accept it under the right circumstances. The following quote is what has people "sweating bullets" as a city hall staffer told me yesterday - "Ninety-nine percent of the times, these people would accept or receive these things from a source that they are comfortable with..."

Pam Wilmot of Common Cause summed up this brewing scandal most poignantly when she told me, "This isn't just any kind of politician, this is a person who was very talented; who advocated for justice and lots of great things. She was affective and could have done so many good things, but for her life to fall into the trash and for her public trust to be sold is such a tragedy."

Democrats get a super majority in the senate.

When a completely lovable lunatic like Al Franken is poised to beat incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman in Minnesota, you know the GOP has become the political version of Wachovia bank and is on the verge of political insolvency, which means holding less than 41 seats in the United States Senate. The most recent poll has Franken, the former SNL comedian, sprinting to the finish line. Add to that the following dreary news for beleaguered Republicans - Jeff Merkley leads Republican Gordon Smith in Oregon, Kay Hagan is croaking Republican Libby Dole in North Carolina (Dole deserves to lose considering she never deigns to steps foot in the state), Jim Martin is right on Republican Saxby Shambliss’ tail in Georgia and Ronnie Musgrove is pretty much dead even with Republican Roger Wicker in Mississippi; that’s if you can even conceive a Democrat winning in Ole Miss. The only good news for the G.O.P. is that Mitch McConnell seams to be holding a slight lead against Democrat Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky.

But Senator Ted Stevens' conviction this week on corruption charges could push the Democrats to the magic number 60 in the senate, something the G.O.P. can’t afford.

Before the verdict, Democrat Mark Begich was already even with the incumbent. The verdict makes Stevens reelection even more uphill thus helping the Democrats to sixty seats bragging rights next year. Historically, both parties have yearned to hold atleast a sixty seat majority as it prevents filibusters and other parliamentary maneuvers by the minority.

But the senate might also get another surprise, she being Sarah Palin. Consider the less than far fetched scenario. Stevens pulls off a miracle next week. Could happen. Then the senate ethics committee would have to rule on whether or not the convicted felon can keep his senate seat. Should Stevens be expelled, suddenly Alaska has a vacant senate seat; a sweet consolation prize for Governor Palin to grant herself should she lose the vice presidency. She’ll be the best dressed senator in history.

McCain vs. Obama

You tell me. Conventional wisdom crowned Obama long ago, and how can anyone beat a candidate who raises money like a healing preacher and gets better press coverage than the Pope. If McCain pulls off a Truman-esque upset, it proves Nixon’s theory that there really is a silent majority in America. In any event, watch Virginia. It’s in the Eastern Time Zone with an early closing time at the polls of seven PM. If the state is declared promptly as a big Obama win, it indicates a landslide. If the state can’t be called by eight O‘clock, it guarantees a later evening than all the belt way bandits expected and bodes well for the underdog.



Shaheen over Sununu

Who knew? Apparently New Hampshire Senator John Sununu is responsible for every human frailty up to an including the Ebola virus. Or at least that's the general theme of the merciless tidal wave of Jeanne Shaheen advertising which has so successfully eviscerated the incumbent Republican that he'll no more win this race than Elvis will rise from the dead. Ironically, Sununu's already being mentioned as one of the unfair casualties of an indiscriminating electorate ready to eat Republicans for breakfast. It was MSNBC Democratic commentator Chris Matthews who recently lamented Sununu's impending doom, citing him as one of the good guys in the senate. For once I agree with Matthews.

Question one

If the ballot initiative passes, it would supposedly terminate the present 5.3 percent income tax on wages, dividends, capital gains and interest. The scandal behind the ballot question is the conduct of the advocates. The Boston Herald reported that the petitioners for the income tax repeal have raised serious money, much of which they have generously placed in their own pockets.

But the voters aren't as focused on the sins of the ballot creators as they are on their own shrinking wallets. Question One gets sort of a protest vote of 45, maybe 46 percent, but nonetheless fails; thankfully.

As for getting high

That’s a different story. If you carry an ounce or less of pot, this ballot initiative - question two - means you're no longer a criminal but someone who could, instead, face a citation. The question will pass because with the crumbling economy, people need something to take the pain away.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Colin who??

General Powell's impact on this election will be less than profound (like most endorsements), and one of the reasons is that he didn't make the argument for Mr. Obama as much as his Military Highness simply let us peek through a kaleidoscopic view of the McCain campaign; ironic given Powell's many years as a G.O.P. devotee. One would think Powell -having been showered with promotions by adoring Republican presidents - would have kept faith with McCain, with whom he's shared a close friendship for many years, like others in the Republican party. In fact, President Bush appointed Powell's son, Michael Powell, head of the FCC in 2001. It was one of the new president's first appointments.

But party loyalty is one thing and opportunism is another. Powell is a carpe diem kinda guy, putting all other considerations in a lock box. Apparently he didn't take offense to Obama attacking McCain for being computer illiterate and "out of touch". A war veteran himself, Powell should cringe at the thought of poking fun at someone, McCain, for a handicap; which prohibits him from typing and sending emails because McCain was tortured as a POW.

And, he being the nation's former diplomat-in-chief, one would have thought that as Powell was lecturing us this weekend on the negativity of the McCain movement, he would have first read the New York Times article which eviscerated Cindy McCain; noting everything from her miscarriages to her rehab for substance addiction. Even John Kerry has jumped on the negative bandwagon by ridiculing McCain's age, saying that his senate colleague wears adult diapers. Ouch!

Yup, the Obama camp is running a veritable Mother Theresa like campaign.

And then there's this alert to liberals suddenly in love with Powell; - he's the same guy who passionately made the case before the United Nations for the invasion of Iraq. As secretary of state, General Powell told the world, "the facts and Iraq's behavior show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction."

Truth be told, there's more than just one Colin Powell. He's either Sybil with pants on or a guy who says one thing in private and yet another in public. In July of 2007 Powell told the Timesonline's Sarah Baxter that he did everything to stop the invasion. "I tried to avoid this war. I took him (Bush) through the consequences of going into an Arab country and becoming the occupiers." But again, if this was the real world view of Secretary Powell, how could he have ever, in good conscience, lobbied the UN security council on the president's behalf and given the intemperate testimony advocating war, which in a speech broadcast everywhere but Krypton paved the way for invasion.

Just as he was once drowning in promotions and trinkets from Republicans, Powell is now sacrosanct in the eyes of liberals for breaking with his party and endorsing Obama. But how the general portrays his role in the Iraq war is reminiscent of what politicians have done a hundred times before. Mission fails, I told you so; mission succeeds, I helped mastermind it.

But is there a caveat? In other words, having just sliced and diced him have I anything sweet and cozy to say about the General? You betcha. On the endless debate of "don't ask don't tell," Bill Clinton's conception which still bans citizens from serving in the military as openly Gay, Powell has been a vocal critic of the antiquated policy. Obama's statements that Powell may well serve in an Obama administration is a clear and welcome indication that the day's may be numbered for "don't ask, don't tell."

In any event, I maintain what I've said for weeks; this race is still competitive, and that's even with Obama outspending McCain by a four to one margin. The tightening polling data is even more of a conundrum when one factors in the reality that this has been a turning point election for journalism, because this was the cycle when the media just let its hair down and didn't care how naked the bias was. Why do I feel like McCain gets a daily blackberry message from Hillary Clinton saying, "now you know what I went through in the Primarys", when the NY senator just couldn't get a break, because she wasn't simply challenging Obama, she was also running against a misogynist clan with names like Brokaw, Matthews, Olberman, Russert, Blitzer, Williams and pretty much any body else sitting under a klieg light and feeling a "thrill going up" their legs.

Life is a......well, you know.....when the guy your running against is so shamelessly coddled by the media; and apparently adored by former Republican and I guess former Iraq War advocate Colin Powell.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

History Primer

Kevin's History Corner
A Frequently Publication by
THEBOSTONMEMO.BLOGSPOT.COM

Ok, here's the deal. We won the Revolutionary War when the British surrendered in 1781 at Yorktown. We then governed under the Articles of Confederation...which in fact we already had been operating under as colonies in rebellion. The articles basically gave all powers to the 13 states, with no nationally elected president. Instead, there was a very weak congress which elected, from its members, a president of that congress. His powers were nominal at best.

In 1789 many Americans realized there needed to be a central government. Things were a mess. Each state was literally printing its own currency. It just wasn't a system of government that could work in any practical sense. People of this belief were called Federalists. THE CONSTITUTION we now live under was written in Philadelphia and General George Washington was subsequently elected unanimously as the first President of the United States, BUT not by the public/popular vote as we see it today. He was elected by "electors" - basically political leaders of the day - and won unanimously from the 69 gathered. They each represented their states. The first president elected with a known popular vote was John Quincy Adams, the sixth president. 108,740 was his vote tally.

The "presidents" under the articles of confederation (again, keep in mind they were elected just by the members of the confederation congress) are as follows...........
Presidents of the United States in Congress Assembled
Samuel Huntington (March 1, 1781– July 9, 1781)
Thomas McKean (July 10, 1781–November 4, 1781)
John Hanson (November 5, 1781– November 3, 1782)
Elias Boudinot (November 4, 1782– November 2, 1783)
Thomas Mifflin (November 3, 1783– October 31, 1784)
Richard Henry Lee (November 30, 1784– November 6, 1785)
John Hancock (November 23, 1785– May 29, 1786)
Nathaniel Gorham (June 6, 1786– November 5, 1786)
Arthur St. Clair (February 2, 1787– November 4, 1787)
Cyrus Griffin (January 22, 1788– November 2, 1788)

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Don't PANIC !!

Dear Friends,
Today, our governor has asked us to keep the Ativan in the medicine cabinets and "not to panic." With the conviction of Franklin Roosevelt, the determination of Harry Truman, the inspiration of JFK and the sincerity of that great economic President James Earl Carter, His Excellency has asked us to be calm in tumultuous times. "I know you are anxious. There is real cause for concern. But not for panic. My office and your government is [sic] (proper pronoun should be 'are') here to help and we will keep governing," said Patrick.

These words were so timely and indeed needed. I was worried that the Commonwealth government might actually fail, like the Egyptian throne with Cleopatra. But the rumors of the governor running for that bunker in Framingham are clearly false. Despite the terror surrounding us and the Barbarians at the gate, Our Beloved Leader (credit to my North Korean contact) has made it clear that He (hence forward, all pronouns giving reference to O.B.L. will be capitalized) will steer us through this crisis and inspire us to know in our hears and minds that we must NOT PANIC.

So, my message to you, my friends, is the same..............NOT TO PANIC. Put down your guns and bibles (not necessarily in that order), drop the inhibitions to riot and burn innocent property - or personages - and just hunker down and be calm.

God Bless Our Beloved Leader.

Don't PANIC !!

Dear Friends,
Today, our governor has asked us to keep the Ativan in the medicine cabinets and "not to panic." With the conviction of Franklin Roosevelt, the determination of Harry Truman, the inspiration of JFK and the sincerity of that great economic President James Earl Carter, His Excellency has asked us to be calm in tumultuous times. "I know you are anxious. There is real cause for concern. But not for panic. My office and your government is [sic] (proper pronoun should be 'are') here to help and we will keep governing," said Patrick.

These words were so timely and indeed needed. I was worried that the Commonwealth government might actually fail, like the Egyptian throne with Cleopatra. But the rumors of the governor running for that bunker in Framingham are clearly false. Despite the terror surrounding us and the Barbarians at the gate, Our Beloved Leader (credit to my North Korean contact) has made it clear that He (hence forward, all pronouns giving reference to O.B.L. will be capitalized) will steer us through this crisis and inspire us to know in our hears and minds that we must NOT PANIC.

So, my message to you, my friends, is the same..............NOT TO PANIC. Put down your guns and bibles (not necessarily in that order), drop the inhibitions to riot and burn innocent property - or personages - and just hunker down and be calm.

God Bless Our Beloved Leader.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Pickles enjoying her Thursday.


Pickles enjoying the sunshine.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

The second debate.

I think McCain gave a highly energized performance at last night's second Presidential Debate.

McCain played more offense, obama more defense. I think while McCain was succesful at labeling obama as a fiscal liberal, and partisan, obama was successful at labeling McCain as a deregulator, which is hardly a good thing to be known as today. Frankly, the only new information I acquired was that we paid three million dollars for a projector in Chicago ...... and I think Staples would have been a better deal for the folks in the windy city.

In McCain I saw a higher level of passion last night. He took every opportunity to show the juxtopositions between himself and Obama on everything from taxes to nuclear power. in point of fact, Obama was rather low key last night in comparison, which was an irony.

At exactly ten o'clock McCain may have won the debate when he said, "we don't have time for on the job training", this after a very poetic statement about world affairs. "A cool hand at the tiller" was another great line he interjected a few minutes later on the subject of when to employ the military forces of the United States.

Actually, there was indeed something new....relatively new....McCain supporting 300 billion dollars to basically buy down mortgages so that people can keep their homes. I think that grabs a lot of people and its certainly a revolutionary position for a gop standard bearer.

Obama wasn't eviscerated last night, but McCain had a better town meeting debate in that he showed some real fire in his belly.

And don't jump on the bandwagon of conventional wisdome. The polls showing an Obama steamroller are far from realistic. This race isn't over.