The Thursday night Fox News poll shows Sen. McCain down by a mere three percentage points, and for my money McCain's campaign has internal data showing hope in Pennsylvania, where recent comments by Congressman Murtha (i.e. Western Pennsylvania is "racist" and comprised of "red necks") have hurt Obama, or atleast the congressman himself who suddenly has an opponent gaining ground on him.
I'm convinced that everybody will watch Virginia on election night because the polls there close early, seven PM, and obviously it's an EST state, making an early call by the networks very plausible. If the major outlets quickly declare for Obama, I say McCain's toast. But if they still cant call it by nine PM, then that bodes well for McCain.
Overall, as of election eve I see McCain with about a five percent chance of pulling off an upset. It's clearly Obama's to lose......maybe it always has been. McCain's had too many bridges to cross - out spent, an anti-Republican sentiment not seen since the post Watergate 1974 midterm election, economic dynamics clearly favoring the Democratic Standard Bearer, and a huge volume of unabashedly pro Obama media coverage which has skewed perceptions in the race against the G.O.P. nominee. It's rather amazing that McCain has been able to hold out as well as he has, given this political environment.